Case Study: Pricing a Chicago to Atlanta to Dallas Triangle

The Setup: One Truck, One Week, and a Home Base in Chicago

A one-truck operation out of Chicago faces a classic triangle: outbound to Atlanta, across to Dallas, and then home. The owner wants to keep the wheels turning, avoid long deadhead moves, and make sure every day pays above the break-even mark. The triangle covers three strong freight markets, but each leg plays by its own rules.

The operator's fixed costs, truck payment, insurance, permits, and office overhead, run on a daily clock. Each day on the road counts, loaded or empty. Variable costs like fuel and driver pay stack on by the mile. To make this work, every load has to carry its weight, and the weakest leg can drag down the whole trip. That's why pricing each leg, not just the out-and-back, is what keeps a small carrier alive.

Keep reading: Reading the Freight Cycle: Capacity, Seasons, and Spot Rates

Leg One: A Strong Headhaul Out of the Midwest

The Chicago to Atlanta lane is a Midwest favorite. Freight is steady, shippers compete for trucks, and rates often let you pick and choose. For this case study, the operator secures a direct load with a reliable broker. The load pays enough to cover fuel, driver, and a healthy margin above daily fixed costs.

At around 720 miles, this leg can be done with one overnight stop. The load picks up Tuesday morning and delivers Wednesday before noon. The truck burns about 110 gallons of diesel, at the going retail price per gallon. Driver pay is a known unit cost per mile. Tolls through Indiana and Kentucky are built into the calculation.

The backhaul question does not come up here. The outbound is strong and sets up the triangle. The operator uses part of Wednesday for a short local move in Atlanta, earning a bit extra while lining up the next long haul.

Leg Two: The Southeast Problem and What Freight Pays Going West

Atlanta to Dallas looks good on the map, but the market tells a different story. Southeast to Texas is not a premium lane. Too many trucks chase too few loads, and rates often fall close to or just above break-even.

Spot Market Versus Contract Rate

The operator must choose: wait for a slightly better-paying load or grab what's available. Waiting too long adds layover costs and risks losing the Dallas reload. In this case, the operator books a load paying slightly above the typical Southeast-to-Texas average. The load covers 800 miles and ties up the truck for two days, with a late Thursday delivery in Dallas.

Fuel costs are similar to the first leg, but the revenue per mile drops. The operator knows this leg will weaken the trip's average, but the load is needed to keep the triangle moving. By Friday morning, the truck is empty and looking for the last piece of the puzzle: the ride home.

Keep reading: The Rate Confirmation Checklist: What to Read Before You Sign

Leg Three: Buying the Ride Home Out of Texas

Dallas has plenty of outbound freight, but rates back to Chicago rarely excite. Most carriers target this lane as a "buying the ride home" move, enough to cover fuel, but not much left for profit.

Chasing a Decent Reload

On Friday, the operator faces choices: book a direct load to Chicago, run a partial to the Midwest with a weekend delivery, or take a short hop and hope for a better reload Monday. For this case, a load to Joliet, Illinois, comes up. The pay is thin, but the schedule brings the truck home by Sunday afternoon, ready to start another week.

The operator runs about 950 miles to Joliet. Fuel and driver pay add up, and the revenue covers little more than direct costs. The margin is slim, but the truck is not sitting in Texas through the weekend.

Deadhead Between Legs and the Miles Nobody Pays For

Every transition between loads costs time and fuel. The first leg finishes in Atlanta on Wednesday morning, but the next pickup is across town and not ready until late afternoon. That means an unpaid reposition of about twenty miles and some idle hours. The Dallas reload has a similar story: the truck finishes at one DC, then deadheads forty miles to the next shipper.

Over the triangle, the operator logs about seventy deadhead miles in total. Each mile burns fuel and driver hours, and none of it appears on a settlement sheet. For a single truck running tight, these miles matter. They dilute the average per-mile revenue and add up over a busy month.

Counting All the Miles

Some operators only count loaded miles, but real profitability comes from dividing total revenue by every mile the truck moves for business. This includes deadhead between pickups, repositioning for a better load, or even detouring for a preferred fuel stop. Over a typical week like this, the triangle produces about 2,470 loaded miles, but total miles run closer to 2,540 once you count the gaps.

See how DeadheadMath handles this for trucking and logistics

Fixed Cost Per Day Versus Fixed Cost Per Mile on a Slow Week

Fixed costs do not care if the truck is loaded. Insurance, truck payment, ELD subscription, and office bills all hit the books every day. Many operators use either a daily or a per-mile method to allocate these costs. On a good week with high miles, the per-mile figure drops. On a slow week, the per-mile fixed cost climbs.

Comparing the Two Methods

For this triangle, the operator is on the road six days. If daily fixed costs total $175, that is $1,050 for the week. With 2,540 total miles, that means about $0.41 per mile in fixed cost. If the truck ran only 2,100 miles in the same week, due to more waiting or shorter hauls, the fixed cost per mile would jump to $0.50. This is why underutilized days are so expensive for a small carrier.

Some operators try to squeeze every mile possible into each day to push the per-mile fixed cost down. Others focus on daily revenue targets. Both methods work, but every slow day hurts. The triangle model shows that one weak leg or extra layover day can turn a profitable week into a break-even or worse.

The Trip Total: Revenue, All Miles, and Net After Fuel

At the end of the week, the operator sits down to tally up. First, all three loads' revenue is added: Chicago to Atlanta, Atlanta to Dallas, Dallas to Joliet. Total loaded miles are counted, then all deadhead and repositioning miles are added for a true picture.

Fuel spend comes off the top. If the truck averages 7 miles per gallon over 2,540 miles, that is about 363 gallons. Multiply by the pump price for the week. Add driver pay, tolls, and minor variable expenses. Then, fixed costs for the week are subtracted. What remains is the net, what the operator keeps for business and home.

Why the Weak Leg Matters Most

In this triangle, the Dallas-to-Chicago leg drags the average down. The strong outbound and the fair middle leg cannot make up for a weak ride home. If the operator had waited in Dallas for a better load, the trip could have been shorter or paid better, but the risk was more unpaid days and higher fixed costs per mile.

For small carriers, this calculation is the difference between a steady business and a struggle. The triangle only works if every leg pays its way, or if the operator can make up for a weak leg with extra local moves or better reload timing.

What Would Have Made Waiting for a Better Third Leg Worth It

The key tradeoff is time versus rate. A stronger Dallas-to-Chicago load could have lifted the whole week's profitability, but the operator would need to wait until Monday for a better-paying opportunity. That means two extra layover days in Texas, adding hotel and meal costs, and raising fixed costs per mile.

To make waiting worthwhile, the rate for the third leg would need to offset both lost time and extra expenses. For most operators, this means a load that pays significantly above the average. If the operator could secure a load paying high enough to cover three days' fixed costs plus extra variable expenses, then waiting makes sense. Otherwise, the safer bet is to take the available load and get the truck home for the next week's work.

A load profitability calculator that models fixed cost per day, tracks settlements, and keeps a lane-by-lane history makes these decisions clearer. With all numbers in front of them, operators can see where the week pays and where it falls short, before the wheels ever roll.